Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 1.919593 2.028661 2.142956 2.272063 2.414342 2.566914 2.743650
2025-09-07 1.764512 1.917313 2.085026 2.284262 2.516492 2.781177 3.109435
2025-09-14 1.640694 1.814519 2.011091 2.252573 2.545140 2.893471 3.348104
2025-09-21 1.543828 1.730271 1.945968 2.217963 2.557838 2.977286 3.549087
2025-09-28 1.462090 1.656171 1.884859 2.179479 2.557264 3.038058 3.719142
2025-10-05 1.427302 1.634746 1.883924 2.212358 2.645493 3.215907 4.060277
2025-10-12 1.397409 1.616507 1.884310 2.244795 2.732896 3.397183 4.424364
2025-10-19 1.368224 1.596851 1.880710 2.270203 2.810643 3.569472 4.794038
2025-10-26 1.327581 1.560308 1.852869 2.260541 2.837620 3.669240 5.061300
2025-11-02 1.289986 1.525725 1.825430 2.248995 2.859795 3.761900 5.326460
2025-11-09 1.249594 1.485709 1.788720 2.222073 2.856924 3.814672 5.528698
2025-11-16 1.211557 1.447250 1.752280 2.193236 2.848626 3.857046 5.716292
2025-11-23 1.185356 1.424000 1.736026 2.193077 2.884654 3.975473 6.065272
2025-11-30 1.164884 1.407573 1.728253 2.204467 2.938765 4.128214 6.505507
2025-12-07 1.131673 1.372778 1.693633 2.174556 2.925760 4.165340 6.718802
2025-12-14 1.099570 1.338452 1.658359 2.141868 2.905975 4.188368 6.905488
2025-12-21 1.068093 1.304046 1.621773 2.105501 2.877872 4.193869 7.054546
2025-12-28 1.060024 1.301404 1.629776 2.136572 2.961691 4.408912 7.717645
2026-01-04 1.052237 1.298767 1.637469 2.167211 3.046451 4.634347 8.461254
2026-01-11 1.042817 1.293460 1.640952 2.191199 3.121163 4.848425 9.235332
2026-01-18 1.024223 1.274669 1.624062 2.182078 3.137207 4.946969 9.723888
2026-01-25 1.006015 1.255922 1.606598 2.171177 3.149196 5.038107 10.216442
2026-02-01 0.984571 1.232036 1.580811 2.145750 3.133378 5.069182 10.537135